Thomas Unise
Elon Musk’s ambitious promises about Tesla’s Robotaxi service face a stark reality check as new data reveals the company is operating just 32 vehicles in Austin, with fewer than 10 typically on the road simultaneously.
The Actual Size of Tesla’s Robotaxi Fleet
While Elon Musk has been publicly promising millions of driverless Tesla Robotaxis on American streets by next year, the current reality paints a starkly different picture. According to data gathered by Texas A&M engineering student Ethan McKanna, who reverse-engineered Tesla’s ride-hailing app, only 32 different Tesla Model Y vehicles are currently part of the Robotaxi network in Austin, Texas.
More concerning for Tesla’s scaling ambitions is that most of these vehicles don’t even operate concurrently. McKanna’s tracking suggests that fewer than ten robotaxis are giving rides simultaneously at any given time, with some observers estimating the number could be as low as 1-5 vehicles.
How the Data Was Collected
McKanna created an online tracker that monitors Tesla’s service in Austin by leveraging the Robotaxi app’s API to fetch ETA estimates. His system pings Tesla at multiple points throughout Austin every five minutes to check wait times and availability. When the system receives a “high service demand” error, it marks the service as unavailable in that location.
The resulting data shows that Robotaxis are unavailable in most locations across Austin, suggesting that the “high service demand” error message might actually be masking a severe supply shortage rather than excess demand.
Musk’s Promises vs. Reality
The findings create an embarrassing contrast to Musk’s grandiose promises about the Robotaxi program, which include:
- Over a thousand Robotaxis in Austin “within a few months” of launching
- Over a million autonomous Teslas on streets by 2026
- Robotaxi operations covering “half the population of the US by the end of the year”
The current fleet of 32 vehicles falls dramatically short of these projections, raising questions about Tesla’s ability to scale the program at the pace Musk has promised.
Performance and Safety Concerns
Beyond the small fleet size, Tesla’s Robotaxis still rely on human “safety monitors” inside the vehicles who have had to make several interventions. The vehicles have reportedly violated traffic laws and been involved in multiple accidents, details of which Tesla has heavily censored.
Musk recently revealed that Tesla is testing fully driverless operation without human supervision, despite these ongoing safety concerns.
The Bigger Picture
Musk has positioned Robotaxis as central to Tesla’s future as the company pivots toward AI, robotics, and automation. However, the current state of the program suggests a significant gap between Musk’s vision and operational reality.
The findings align with rough estimates from Tesla enthusiasts who had previously suggested the service launched in late June with approximately a dozen cars, meaning Musk’s claim that the fleet had “doubled” was technically accurate, though misleading in terms of scale.
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