Thomas Unise
Representative Ritchie Torres has proposed new legislation to prohibit government employees with access to nonpublic information from trading on prediction markets, following suspicious betting activity related to the US attack on Venezuela.
Inside the Proposed Legislation
The “Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026” would create restrictions for elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch staffers who have access to nonpublic information. The bill would extend to government employees who may reasonably obtain such information while performing their official duties, even if they haven’t yet accessed specific documents.
The Venezuela Betting Controversy
This legislative proposal follows evidence suggesting insider trading on prediction platform Polymarket regarding the recent kidnapping of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Just two days before the surprise attack, an account invested over $30,000 betting that either Maduro would be removed from power or US troops would enter Venezuela by January 31st. This bet reportedly yielded approximately $400,000 in profit within 24 hours.
Broader Concerns About Prediction Markets
The incident highlights growing concerns about cryptocurrency-based prediction markets where users can bet on geopolitical conflicts and other world events. As sports entrepreneur Joe Pompliano noted, “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”
The article also mentions that Trump Media and Technology Group has been working with Crypto.com to implement prediction market functionality into Truth Social, while the Trump administration has reportedly dropped dozens of federal investigations into crypto-related issues, including cases against prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.
Legislative Outlook
Despite the proposal, the article suggests that Congress has historically shown little enthusiasm for regulating insider trading, raising questions about whether Torres’ bill will gain significant traction. Interestingly, as of the article’s publication, there were no wagers available on either Polymarket or Kalshi regarding the outcome of the bill itself.
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